Poisson Distribution: Predict Football Odds Today

Last updated on December 27th, 2021

One betting strategy that many professional punters use is Poisson Distribution as it appeals to many mathematical disciplines. This concept is efficient in determining the probability of the number of goals scored by a team in a match. It is a great betting tool to forecast football matches.


A Poisson Distribution can be used for betting predictions to know the final score of two competing teams by calculating both the “Attack Strength” and the “Defense Strength”. Let’s take a look on how to use these football betting tips when using our VOdds platform and make more profitable bets.


In this article, let’s talk about how interesting this strategy is and understand this technique for your next bets using VOdds sports trading platform!


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Why use this betting tool to forecast football matches


The essence of this concept is that an outcome can be distinguished by modeling numbers based on past events and results. In the application of the Poisson Distribution, you can have a concrete prediction of how many goals a specific team could score in their next football games.


As an example, let’s take a look at the match between Bayern Munich and Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League last December 9, 2021. First, you need to calculate the forces of the attacking and defending lines of both teams.


For a much better understanding, let’s use this table. Note that these numbers are for illustration purposes only, and not actual scores of the teams that were mentioned:



So let’s look at this table and calculate the attack and defense of each team using Poisson Distribution.


To compute Bayern Munich’s Attack Strength: 


3 (average goals scored at home by Bayern) divided by 1.661 (average goals scored at home by all teams) = 1.806


To compute Barcelona Attack Strength: 


1.833 (average goals on the road by Barcelona) divided by 1.151 (average goals on the road by all teams) = 1.593


To compute Bayern Munich’s Defense Strength:


1.167 (average goals allowed at home by Bayern) divided by 1.151 (average goals on the road by all teams) = 1.014


To compute Barcelona’s Defense Strength:


1.5 (goals allowed on the road by Barcelona) divided by 1.661 (average goals scored at home by all teams) = 0.903


And from this example binomial distribution, we can predict that Bayern Munich has a stronger Attack and Defense strength compared to FC Barcelona.


We can also calculate the probability of a certain number of goals scored by the hosts in an upcoming match using this method.


This way, you can make more informed decisions based on historical data and using average numbers and not just by random variables and tips.


We also recommend reading our article “How to Make More Profit in Sports Betting this 2021-2022?” for more tips and predictions.

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